FTR foresees new challenges for the U.S. heavy goods market with the arrival of Trump

  On Nov. 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to imposetariffs as one of his first executive orders, a move that could haveeffects on Class 8 vehicle orders, said Dan Moyer, senior commercialvehicle analyst at FTR Transportation Intelligence.

  After it was announced that during November 2024, orders for Class 8trucks reached their highest figure in the last 12 months, the specialistsaid that Trump's announcement probably had a minimal impact onorders for the month, but going forward there could be a boost asfleets seek to anticipate possible tariffs.

  Moyer recalled that the next president proposed a 25% tariff on all importsfrom Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products:"More than 40% of Class 8 trucks manufactured for the U.S. market arecurrently built in Mexico," he warned.

  "The solid month-over-month increase in net orders could reflect thatsome fleets choose to place orders after the conclusion of the NovemberU.S. election, but the impact of the election might not end there," hesaid.

  According to FTR's own data, while orders declined year-on-year inNovember, they were still above seasonal expectations, as the averageNovember order level over the past seven years has been 30,393 units.

  It also noted that despite the continued stagnation in the U.S. freightmarket, net orders from September to November 2024 were 1% higherthan the same period in 2023, indicating a slight positive momentum forthe 2025 season.

  Dan Moyer commented that if the tariffs go into effect in the first quarterof 2025,original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) may struggle toquickly ramp up production due to labor and supply chain constraints,especially during the low production months of December throughFebruary

  He added that high levels of Class 8 inventory could partially meet anyincrease in retail demand, but Trump's announcement adds to thechallenges facing the heavy-duty vehicle industry, such as preparationsfor the EPA's 2027 NOx regulations, "further straining supply chains andcosts."

  It is worth mentioning that on November 8, Class 8 orders in the U.S.reached 33,500 units, an increase of 12% compared to October of this year,in addition to a decrease of 7% compared to November 2023.

  As of November 2024, cumulative orders increased by 9% year-on-year, inaddition to totaling 273,143 units during the last 12 months. 

  He also highlighted that OEMs saw relatively steady monthly growth intotal market demand in November.

  "Despite a slow charging market, fleets have continued to invest in newequipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024," FTRshared in its monthly report.